Six Factor Omega Daily Bias
Six-Factor Institutional-Style Directional Intelligence Engine
Version 1.9 | Plazo Sullivan Roche Capital (PSRC)
TradingView Pine Script v6 | Human Forward-Testing Edition
This is the upgrade to Institutional Daily Bias and our Desk State Markov System.
1. Introduction: Trade With a Directional Thesis
Professional trading begins with a question that is more important than the entry signal:
Which side of the market deserves preference today—and does the available evidence support that preference?
A trader might have an exceptional execution strategy built around liquidity sweeps, order blocks, fair value gaps, breakouts or mean reversion. But even a technically attractive entry can be poorly positioned against the larger directional environment.
OMEGA Daily Bias was developed by Plazo Sullivan Roche Capital to address that problem.
OMEGA is a six-factor, institutional-style directional analysis dashboard designed to provide a structured BUY, SELL or NEUTRAL assessment for the trading day.
Instead of relying on a single moving average, oscillator or discretionary chart pattern, OMEGA combines higher-timeframe directional context with market structure, auction location, regime persistence, volume pressure and momentum.
Its purpose is not to predict the exact next candle or place trades automatically. Its purpose is to provide an evidence-based directional framework that traders can evaluate alongside their independent execution systems.
OMEGA determines directional preference. The trader determines execution.
Download the Technical Whitepaper
Download the Defensibility Paper
Also available on:
Ninjatrader, cAlgo cBot and MT5
QuantConnect (Lean Engine)
Python Stack (andas, scikit-learn, XGBoost/LightGBM, and PyTorch)
Connect Omega to ChatGPT, Claude or Grok
Download the Python AI Core
The default consensus rule requires all configured AI providers to confirm. A rejection, abstention, failed API call or missing evidence prevents approval.
Crucially, the AI models are reviewing the internal coherence of OMEGA's supplied evidence, not independently verifying real-time market conditions. Three AI approvals do not equal three independent market-data confirmations.
Core capabilities
Capability | Included |
OpenAI, Claude and Grok API integration | |
Configurable AI providers/models | |
Six-factor TradingView JSON payload | |
Concurrent AI evaluation | |
AI reasoning and cautions | |
Fail-closed consensus | |
Stale and contradictory signal rejection | |
Duplicate signal protection | |
SQLite history and reporting | |
Automatic broker order execution | Not included |
Quick installation
Extract the ZIP, install Python 3.11+ and the requirements, then configure your API keys in .env.
Start the receiving server:
python omega_ai_gateway.py serve
In a separate terminal, start the analysis worker:
python omega_ai_gateway.py worker
In TradingView, install the included v1.9.1 companion indicator, enable its JSON webhook option and create an alert using Any alert() function call.
TradingView requires a publicly reachable webhook endpoint, and its HTTP callback must complete quickly. The gateway therefore acknowledges receipt immediately and performs AI analysis separately.
Your API credentials remain in the server configuration, not inside TradingView alerts.
Verification status
Six local Python tests passed.
Python syntax validation passed.
Mocked consensus, rejection and duplicate-event paths passed.
Live provider API connectivity remains unverified without credentials.
TradingView Pine compilation and actual webhook delivery require platform testing.
Deployment recommendation: Use this as a supervised AI review and logging layer during OMEGA's forward-testing program. Do not let AI consensus override OMEGA's existing vetoes or automatically authorize trades.
2. The OMEGA Analytical Philosophy
OMEGA follows three principles common to systematic quantitative research.
First: Context precedes execution.
A trading setup should be interpreted relative to the higher-timeframe market environment. A bullish technical pattern appearing inside strong bearish macro conditions is not equivalent to the same pattern appearing within an established bullish environment.
Second: Multiple analytical domains should contribute to a decision.
Trend, structure, auction behavior, momentum and participation capture different aspects of market behavior. OMEGA combines these observations into one weighted assessment, while recognizing that some of these inputs remain correlated.
Third: The model must be able to say NEUTRAL.
OMEGA does not force a BUY or SELL whenever the market produces mixed evidence.
Insufficient data, unresolved higher-timeframe disagreement, structural invalidation and weak weighted alignment can prevent directional confirmation.
This is an essential distinction between a directional research dashboard and an indicator engineered to generate constant trading signals.
3. The Six-Factor Decision Architecture
OMEGA evaluates six analytical domains using the following default relative weights.
Analytical component | Default weight |
Institutional-Style Daily Hypothesis | 30% |
H1 Market Structure | 20% |
H1 Auction / Liquidity Location | 15% |
Markov Regime | 15% |
Prevailing Volume Pressure | 10% |
Momentum | 10% |
Total | 100% |
The default weighting prioritizes the Daily hypothesis and market structure while incorporating secondary evidence from regime behavior, volume and momentum.
The weights are configurable. The published defaults are research allocations and have not been statistically established as optimal.
In addition, OMEGA applies an H4 directional gate and several data-quality and conflict checks.
A favorable weighted score alone is not sufficient to authorize a final BUY or SELL.
4. Component One: Institutional-Style Daily Hypothesis
Default weight: 30%
The Daily Hypothesis establishes OMEGA's directional foundation.
It uses information from the previously completed Daily candle rather than reacting to every movement of the current developing session.
Three measurements contribute to its score:
Daily price location relative to EMA50: Determines whether the previous Daily close is positioned above or below the longer-term reference, normalized by Daily ATR.
EMA20 versus EMA50 separation: Measures the relationship between shorter- and longer-term daily trend conditions, also normalized by ATR.
Previous Daily candle body: Measures bullish or bearish closing pressure relative to that candle's full range.
The internal contributions are 50%, 30% and 20%, respectively.
The resulting Daily score ranges from −100 to +100.
With the default hypothesis threshold of ±28:
A score of +28 or higher establishes a BUY hypothesis.
A score of −28 or lower establishes a SELL hypothesis.
A score between those thresholds produces a NEUTRAL hypothesis.
The Daily hypothesis is based on completed Daily information, so the developing intraday candle does not continuously rewrite the original directional thesis.
Institutional-style interpretation: The Daily Hypothesis approximates higher-timeframe directional conditions. It does not measure the actual proprietary positions, intentions or order books of financial institutions.
5. Component Two: H1 Market Structure
Default weight: 20%
Market structure helps establish whether recent price behavior supports the prevailing directional hypothesis.
OMEGA examines breakouts beyond the highest high or lowest low of a preceding H1 observation window.
By default, the breakout lookback is 20 H1 bars.
A confirmed close above the reference high establishes bullish structural direction. A confirmed close below the reference low establishes bearish structural direction.
The system also tracks the age of the most recent structural breakout.
The default structural expiry is 60 H1 bars. Once that period elapses without renewed qualifying evidence, the structural vote becomes neutral.
This avoids treating an old breakout as permanent evidence of the current market condition.
Dashboard interpretation:
BUY: Bullish structural direction.
SELL: Bearish structural direction.
NEUTRAL: No currently valid structural direction.
This is an objective breakout-based structure model, not a complete discretionary ICT/SMC interpretation of every swing, order block or change of character.
6. Component Three: Auction and Liquidity Location
Default weight: 15%
Price direction becomes more informative when examined relative to established market reference levels.
OMEGA's auction module evaluates:
Previous Daily high.
Previous Daily low.
Midpoint of the previous Daily range.
Current developing daily volume-weighted reference calculated from H1 typical prices.
Sustained closes outside previous-day boundaries.
Price extension normalized by H1 ATR.
Two consecutive H1 closes above the previous Daily high provide bullish acceptance evidence under the default settings.
Two consecutive H1 closes below the previous Daily low provide bearish acceptance evidence.
When no such acceptance condition is present, the module combines price location relative to its developing H1 volume-weighted reference and the previous-day midpoint.
This produces a directional auction score rather than simply labeling every price above VWAP as bullish.
Important distinction: The H1-derived volume-weighted reference is an approximation. It is not an exchange-grade tick-level VWAP or a full volume-profile calculation with POC, VAH and VAL.
The auction model also contributes to daily-hypothesis invalidation. If bullish Daily conditions are contradicted by accepted movement below the previous Daily low, or bearish conditions by accepted movement above the previous Daily high, the original hypothesis is marked invalid for confirmation purposes.
7. Component Four: Markov Regime Intelligence
Default weight: 15%
Markets do not behave identically across trending, ranging, high-volatility and transitional conditions.
OMEGA includes a first-order Markov regime model to classify the prevailing H1 environment and estimate historical persistence.
The model recognizes five states:
Regime | Interpretation |
UPTREND | Bullish trend conditions |
DOWNTREND | Bearish trend conditions |
RANGE | Limited separation between trend references |
HIGH VOL | Elevated volatility relative to recent conditions |
TRANSITION | Directional transition or mixed trend conditions |
The system classifies states using EMA relationships, directional velocity, changes in velocity and ATR behavior.
It then maintains a 5×5 transition matrix that records historical changes between states.
Older observations receive progressively less weight through exponential decay.
From this matrix, OMEGA estimates three important diagnostics:
Regime persistence: A smoothed estimate of how frequently the current state transitions into the same state.
Normalized entropy: A measure of how dispersed or uncertain the historical transition probabilities are. Lower values indicate a more concentrated transition distribution; higher values indicate less predictable regime transitions.
Transition-row mass: The decayed historical observation mass available for the current regime.
The default minimum row mass is 30, minimum persistence is 0.52, and maximum normalized entropy is 0.82.
Only adequately sampled, sufficiently persistent bullish or bearish trend regimes generate directional Markov votes.
Range, high-volatility, transition and insufficiently supported conditions contribute a neutral directional vote.
Important: Markov persistence is not the probability that the next trade will win. OMEGA uses an empirical state-transition model, not a hidden Markov model or a calibrated price-direction probability.
8. Component Five: Prevailing Volume Pressure
Default weight: 10%
Price movements can look compelling even when market participation is weak.
OMEGA's volume module evaluates two aspects of participation.
Directional candle-volume pressure
The module considers where the H1 candle closes within its high-low range, weighted by available chart volume and smoothed using an exponential moving average.
Closes near the upper range contribute positive pressure; closes near the lower range contribute negative pressure.
Relative Volume (RVOL)
Current H1 volume is compared with its 20-period average.
The default minimum RVOL is 0.65.
When relative volume is too low, the module's directional reading is withheld rather than treated as convincing participation evidence.
Dashboard interpretations include BUY, SELL, NEUTRAL, and THIN / NO DATA.
Data limitation: On Forex and many CFD markets, the volume supplied by TradingView may represent tick volume or broker-specific activity. OMEGA does not equate this with true exchange order flow, footprint delta or institutional net buying and selling.
Volume quality depends on the selected symbol and data provider.
9. Component Six: Momentum and Acceleration
Default weight: 10%
Momentum measures how price is moving, not merely where it is positioned.
OMEGA combines two ATR-normalized measurements:
Directional velocity: Price movement over the configured H1 momentum lookback.
Acceleration: The recent change in price velocity.
The internal blend gives 70% emphasis to normalized velocity and 30% to normalized acceleration.
The default momentum lookback is five H1 bars.
This approach avoids stacking several conventional oscillators that may measure substantially overlapping price behavior.
A positive momentum score supports bullish direction; a negative score supports bearish direction.
Weak or balanced momentum contributes a neutral directional reading.
Momentum is supporting evidence—not an independent authorization to trade.
10. The H4 Higher-Timeframe Gate
In addition to the six weighted components, OMEGA checks H4 directional context.
Two modes are available.
Mode A: H4 EMA200 — Default
The previous completed H4 closing price is compared with the completed H4 EMA200.
This establishes a longer-horizon bullish or bearish context.
Mode B: H4 EMA20 + Daily EMA50
The completed H4 closing price is compared with H4 EMA20, and its direction must agree with the previous completed Daily close relative to Daily EMA50.
The default setting requires the H4 direction to agree with the Daily hypothesis before a final BUY or SELL may be confirmed.
This prevents favorable lower-timeframe evidence from automatically overriding an opposing higher-timeframe directional condition.
11. How the Final Decision Is Calculated
Each of the six components contributes a directional score or vote.
OMEGA combines the components using a normalized, weighted calculation.
The weights total 100 by default, and the directional evidence score is presented on a scale from −100 to +100.
Positive values favor buying; negative values favor selling.
The default final decision threshold is 45 directional points.
However, a weighted score is not a standalone trading signal.
For BUY or SELL confirmation, the engine also requires:
A non-neutral Daily hypothesis.
Sufficient overall data quality and evidence coverage.
The configured H4 directional agreement.
No accepted invalidation of the original Daily hypothesis.
No prohibited combined structure-and-auction opposition.
A weighted score sufficiently aligned with the Daily hypothesis.
Two consecutive qualifying H1 observations by default.
If these requirements are not met, the Final Bias is NEUTRAL, even if individual component readings are strongly bullish or bearish.
This deliberately allows a directional hypothesis and a final trading permission assessment to differ.
12. Conflict Resolution and Neutral Decisions
OMEGA's conflict model is designed to avoid forcing a directional conclusion when the underlying evidence becomes contradictory.
Higher-timeframe disagreement
If H4 direction does not agree with the Daily hypothesis and H4 agreement is required, confirmation is blocked.
Core structural and auction opposition
If both the H1 structural vote and auction vote oppose the Daily hypothesis, the strict opposition setting can block confirmation.
Daily hypothesis invalidation
An accepted move beyond the relevant previous-day extreme can invalidate the original Daily thesis.
Insufficient evidence
The engine applies a configurable evidence-coverage threshold, set to 85% by default.
Unavailable data sources cannot automatically be interpreted as bullish or bearish evidence.
Weak weighted alignment
Even when the higher-timeframe environment is favorable, the final weighted score must reach the required directional threshold.
Confirmation delay
The default two-observation confirmation requirement helps avoid granting a new direction on a single isolated H1 reading.
These controls are directional research safeguards. They are not substitutes for stop losses, exposure limits or broker-side risk management.
13. Understanding the Dashboard
OMEGA presents its principal calculations in a compact on-chart table.
Dashboard row | How to interpret it |
DAILY HYPOTHESIS | Direction derived from completed Daily data, plus signed Daily score |
H4 DIRECTION GATE | Higher-timeframe directional context |
H1 STRUCTURE | Bullish, bearish or neutral breakout-based structure |
H1 AUCTION | Directional acceptance and volume-weighted location |
MARKOV REGIME | Market regime, directional vote, persistence and entropy |
VOLUME PRESSURE | Smoothed directional pressure and RVOL |
MOMENTUM | Directional velocity/acceleration vote and score |
WEIGHTED EVIDENCE | Combined signed directional score |
EVIDENCE COVERAGE | Percentage of configured component weight supported by available evidence |
PERMISSION / BLOCKER | Principal reason confirmation is granted or withheld |
DAILY / H1 UPDATE | Dates and times associated with the observations |
FINAL BIAS | Final confirmed BUY, SELL or NEUTRAL assessment |
Weighted Evidence is not a win probability.
For example, a reading of +70 indicates strong positive alignment under the specified scoring model. It does not mean that the market has a 70% probability of rising or that a BUY trade has a 70% chance of success.
Likewise, Evidence Coverage measures the availability of configured analytical inputs. It does not measure historical accuracy.
14. Recommended Timeframes
OMEGA separates the chart timeframe from its underlying analytical timeframes.
The Daily hypothesis uses completed Daily observations. H4 context uses completed H4 data. Structure, auction, Markov, momentum and volume calculations are defined on H1.
This preserves the intended analytical horizon when viewing ordinary intraday charts.
Attached TradingView chart | Recommended use |
M1 | Detailed execution chart with higher-timeframe directional context |
M5 | Scalping and shorter-term execution planning |
M15 | Recommended primary forward-testing timeframe |
M30 | Intraday trading and context monitoring |
H1 | Native confirmation horizon |
H4 | Daily hypothesis viewing; full H1 confirmation unavailable |
Daily | Daily hypothesis viewing; full H1 confirmation unavailable |
Weekly and above | Unsupported |
On supported standard intraday charts at H1 or below, OMEGA retrieves previously completed H1 observations.
On H4 and Daily charts, the indicator can display a Daily hypothesis but does not treat sampled H1 information as fully verified session confirmation.
The Daily hypothesis is designed to remain consistent across supported chart timeframes, subject to matching symbol feeds, session calendars and data availability. Exact chart-to-chart parity must still be checked during forward testing.
Recommended default: M15 for dashboard observation, with the trader's independent execution strategy operating on its preferred timeframe.
15. Recommended Markets
OMEGA is designed for research across liquid markets with adequate historical data.
Recommended initial forward-testing instruments include:
Gold: XAUUSD.
Major Forex: EURUSD, GBPUSD and USDJPY.
US indices: NAS100 / USTEC, US500 and US30.
Energy: XBRUSD / Brent crude.
These instruments may exhibit materially different session structures, volume-data quality, volatility behavior and directional persistence.
The published settings are not independently optimized for each market.
A setting or conclusion established on gold should not automatically be considered valid for NASDAQ or EURUSD.
16. Default Configuration
Setting | Default |
Daily fast EMA | 20 |
Daily slow EMA | 50 |
Daily ATR | 14 |
Daily hypothesis threshold | ±28 |
H4 context mode | H4 EMA200 |
H1 breakout lookback | 20 bars |
H1 structure expiry | 60 bars |
H1 acceptance closes | 2 |
H1 ATR | 14 |
Final decision threshold | 45 |
Consecutive H1 confirmations | 2 |
Require H4 agreement | Enabled |
Strict structural/auction opposition veto | Enabled |
Minimum evidence coverage | 85% |
Markov minimum transition-row mass | 30 |
Markov transition decay | 0.995 |
Minimum Markov persistence | 0.52 |
Maximum normalized entropy | 0.82 |
H1 momentum lookback | 5 |
Volume-pressure smoothing | 8 |
Minimum RVOL | 0.65 |
Maximum completed H1 data age | 90 minutes |
The component weights and thresholds can be modified through the indicator settings. Any changes should be recorded as a separate test configuration.
17. Quick Start Guide
Step 1 — Install the indicator.
Open TradingView, launch Pine Editor, insert the OMEGA Pine Script source, save it, and add the indicator to your chart.
Step 2 — Select the market.
Begin with a liquid instrument such as XAUUSD, EURUSD or USTEC. Use a standard candlestick chart and a consistent market-data feed.
Step 3 — Choose M15.
M15 is the recommended primary observation timeframe for human forward testing.
Step 4 — Review the Daily Hypothesis.
Identify whether the established daily thesis is BUY, SELL or NEUTRAL.
Step 5 — Inspect the H4 Gate.
Determine whether higher-timeframe direction supports the Daily hypothesis.
Step 6 — Evaluate the six-factor dashboard.
Review structure, auction behavior, regime, volume, momentum and the combined weighted score.
Step 7 — Read the Permission / Blocker row.
A favorable score is insufficient if OMEGA reports invalidation, higher-timeframe conflict, missing evidence or inadequate confluence.
Step 8 — Observe the Final Bias.
BUY or SELL indicates that the configured directional conditions have qualified. NEUTRAL indicates that the complete decision requirements are not satisfied.
Step 9 — Apply your independent entry model.
Use your preferred strategy to identify the actual entry, stop loss, take profit and position size.
Step 10 — Record the outcome.
For forward testing, document the final bias, component readings, observation time, chosen strategy and subsequent market outcome.
Do not change settings midway through a predefined testing sample.
18. TradingView Alerts
OMEGA provides four alert conditions:
OMEGA Daily BUY hypothesis: A new bullish Daily hypothesis appears at the daily transition.
OMEGA Daily SELL hypothesis: A new bearish Daily hypothesis appears at the daily transition.
OMEGA Final BUY confirmed: The completed H1 confirmation engine qualifies the Daily BUY hypothesis.
OMEGA Final SELL confirmed: The completed H1 confirmation engine qualifies the Daily SELL hypothesis.
Daily hypothesis alerts and final confirmation alerts represent different stages of the process.
Neither is an automatic order-entry instruction.
For the human forward-testing team, configure final confirmation alerts on a supported standard intraday chart, preferably M15, using Once Per Bar Close.
The script restricts its first directional confirmation declaration to one event per daily session within its calculation logic.
19. Best Practices for Human Forward Testing
Use the indicator as a directional filter, not as a substitute for an entry system.
A final BUY does not require traders to buy immediately. It establishes a preferred directional context under the model's rules.
Respect NEUTRAL.
A neutral assessment does not necessarily mean that the underlying market has no trend. It means OMEGA has not satisfied its complete directional-confirmation conditions.
Do not mistake Markov persistence for certainty.
A persistent regime can still reverse. High persistence describes past state behavior, not guaranteed future outcomes.
Evaluate volume quality by instrument.
Different providers may supply different volume series. CFD and Forex tick volume should not be presented as consolidated institutional order flow.
Avoid changing weights during a forward test.
Adjusting weights after observing disappointing outcomes creates selection bias and makes performance comparisons unreliable.
Do not chase extended prices.
Even when the final direction is correct, entry location and risk/reward remain critical. OMEGA does not include a complete trade-specific stop-placement or anti-chase execution system.
Record neutral and missing-data periods.
Testing only confirmed BUY and SELL signals can conceal the cost of missed opportunities and the consequences of abstention.
Separate forecast accuracy from trading profitability.
A directional bias can be correct without a particular entry strategy making money. Conversely, a mean-reversion strategy may profit during a market that has a conflicting daily trend.
20. Why OMEGA Is Institutional-Style
OMEGA draws on several analytical ideas used in systematic market research and professional trading environments:
Multi-horizon analysis: Daily directional context, H4 trend validation and H1 confirmation.
Quantitative factor aggregation: Explicit scoring and configurable relative weights.
Regime analysis: Historical transition frequencies, persistence and entropy.
Auction-based context: Prior-day levels, acceptance, rejection and volume-weighted price location.
Structural validation: Objective breakout rules and expiration of stale structure.
Participation analysis: Relative volume and directional volume-pressure proxies.
Decision governance: Higher-timeframe agreement, invalidation, evidence sufficiency and conflict vetoes.
Causal signal design: Emphasis on completed higher-timeframe observations rather than unconfirmed future-dependent values.
The term institutional-style describes this analytical framework. It does not imply access to institutional proprietary data, verified institutional positioning or affiliation with banks and hedge funds.
Institutional-grade research also requires independent validation, operational robustness and proven economic usefulness. Those standards remain separate from the sophistication of the model's components.
21. Research Status and Important Limitations
OMEGA v1.9 is a human forward-testing candidate.
Earlier OMEGA research iterations did not establish that the original weighted Daily forecast consistently outperformed simpler EMA-based comparators. Version 1.9 introduces additional Markov, volume and momentum contributions, but these additions have not yet demonstrated independent predictive value.
The published six-factor weights have not been statistically calibrated to a future-return probability.
The dashboard does not measure real broker spreads, actual market depth, full institutional order flow or the user's portfolio risk.
It is not an automated execution engine.
The final BUY/SELL/NEUTRAL decision should therefore be treated as an experimental directional assessment requiring independent verification.
22. Conclusion
A trading dashboard is most useful when it makes the reasoning behind a market preference visible.
OMEGA Daily Bias combines six quantitative analytical components with higher-timeframe context and defined confirmation requirements to provide one readable directional assessment.
It is designed to help traders distinguish aligned conditions from conflicting ones, maintain a consistent analytical process and evaluate directional hypotheses without surrendering control of execution.
Six analytical perspectives. One structured market assessment. Execution remains the trader's decision.
OMEGA Daily Bias v1.9
Developed by Plazo Sullivan Roche Capital (PSRC)
Institutional-Style Quantitative Research · TradingView Pine Script v6
Risk Disclosure: Trading and leveraged financial instruments involve substantial risk. OMEGA is an experimental research and decision-support indicator, not financial advice or a guarantee of forecasting accuracy, profits or capital preservation. All trading decisions, position sizing and risk management remain the responsibility of the user.
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